When will the next Skin Cancer occur ? (NMSC)

Timing of subsequent new tumors in patients who present with Basal cell carcinoma or cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.Wehner MR, et al. JAMA Dermatol. 2015 Apr 1;151(4):382-8. doi: 10.1001/jamadermatol.2014.3307.

INTRODUCTION
Skin Cancers can be divided into Melanomas and Non-Melanoma Skin Cancers (NMSC).
Although Melanomas can have a dismal prognosis, the most frequent types are NMSC.

METHODS
In this study patients with NMSC were recruited and a total of 1284 patients were followed for an average of around 6 years (0-to-12 years) (Prospective study)

RESULTS
The risk for a subsequent NMSC was substantially lower after the first lifetime NMSC
diagnosis:
14.5% at 3 years. (if the NMSC had occured more than once, the risk was 43.9%)
40.7% at 5 years (if the NMSC had occured more than once the risk was 82%
After 10 years, the risk of developing a NMSC after one NMSC (59.6%) is the same as 2 years after a “more than one” NMSC (61.5%)

COMMENTS
-This study suggests that patients who have an initial NMSC have a low risk of developing a second NMSC in the first three years
-In practice although regular follow-ups are needed, it might mean that surveillance can be less frequent in the first three years following treatment of the Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC) or Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCC).
Nevertheless, the patients studies were from the West Coast in the US and it remains to be seen if these observations are applicable elsewhere.

Article selection: Prof Dr Jean-Hilaire Saurat – dermatologist. Geneva, Switzerland